Two Teams, Same Dream - the Olympic Qualifying Playoff
A preview of the upcoming playoff between Jamaica and Canada
Just a few months removed from the 2023 Women’s World Cup, we have the opportunity to take in what is shaping up to be a great Concacaf matchup with everything on the line. Jamaica and Canada will face off in a two-leg playoff on 9/22 and 9/26 with the winner advancing to the 2024 Olympics in Paris. The Olympic soccer history between these two could not be more different. Jamaica have never qualified for the Olympic tournament and Canada have proven to be a powerhouse in the last decade (gold medal - 2020, bronze medals - 2012 and 2016).
Canada have also never lost to Jamaica in a competitive match (9-0-0) and have outscored them 60-1. The last time these two met in the 2022 Concacaf W Championship semifinals, The Reggae Girlz were shut out 3-0. If you didn’t catch much of the 2023 World Cup or haven’t followed the women’s game in Concacaf in the last year, it would be easy to assume history would repeat itself. But given the recent performances at the World Cup and ongoing federation turmoil on both sides, this matchup may not be as straight-forward as you’d expect.
How did we get here?
In prior years, Concacaf would hold a separate Olympic qualifying tournament to determine which two teams would represent the region, but for this iteration, the 2022 Concacaf W Championship was used for World Cup and Olympic qualification. The winner would automatically qualify for the Olympics and 2nd and 3rd place would face each other in a playoff for the second spot.
Jamaica opened the tournament with a 1-0 win against the hosts, Mexico, with an early goal from Bunny Shaw. In their second game they were played off the field by the USWNT in a 0-5 loss. They finished group play with a convincing 4-0 win against Haiti with two more goals from Shaw. This was enough to finish second in Group A, which clinched World Cup qualification and sent them through to the semifinals of Concacaf W.
Canada had no trouble in Group B as they went unbeaten with wins against Trinidad & Tobago, Panama, and Costa Rica. In the end, they finished atop the group and scored 9 goals while keeping clean sheets in each game. Two of those victories came against 2023 World Cup teams so it was an impressive showing from them.
The placements in their respective groups meant a semifinal clash between these two nations. As you have already read above, Canada went on to beat Jamaica 3-0 in a game they thoroughly dominated. The Reggae Girlz were without Bunny Shaw in the game, but even her presence would not have made the difference. Canada maintained more than 60% possession and had 33 shots (11 on target). Their goals from Jessie Fleming, Allysha Chapman, and Adriana Leon were fantastic all-around football and they deserved the win (see highlights below).
Despite the loss, Jamaica still had a lot to play for! They faced off against Costa Rica in the 3rd place game and after over 100 minutes of back-and-forth football, Kiki Van Zanten broke the deadlock and gave Jamaica a 1-0 lead after an impressive run down the right side and beating the keeper. The Reggae Girlz went on to hold that lead and earn a spot in the Olympic qualifying playoff, where they would face the loser of USWNT and Canada.
Canada went into their matchup with a lot of confidence - they were the defending Olympic champions after all. The US had the better chances in the first 75 minutes of the game but the Canadian defense held up and we had a scoreless draw with just 15 minutes to play. Then, disaster struck for Canada as they conceded an inadvertent penalty which was buried by Alex Morgan. Despite a few decent chances towards the end, Canada couldn’t find the back of the net and lost 0-1.
Let’s remember, this tournament was back in July 2022 and both Canada and Jamaica would need to wait 14 more months before their playoff to determine who would advance alongside the USWNT to the 2024 Olympics in Paris. Well the time has finally come, and a lot has happened with both these teams since then…including the 2023 World Cup.
A Tale of Two World Cups
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. If I didn’t know any better, Charles Dickens was predicting the 2023 World Cup. The feelings from both teams and fanbases after the tournament could not have been more different. Below you will find some analysis on both of these nation’s performances from Australia/New Zealand that were shared in previous posts during the 2023 World Cup. Those posts can also be found in our World Cup Section if you are looking to do a deeper dive!
Jamaica
The Reggae Girlz made history by reaching the Round of 16 in this tournament:
Represented their country in a World Cup knockout game for the first time (men’s or women’s).
Became just the 3rd team from Concacaf to advance out of the group stage.
They were the first Caribbean nation to advance out of the World Cup group stage (men’s or women’s).
The following analysis is taken directly from an excerpt in the post below
Positives:
This team faced France, Brazil, and Colombia and only gave up one goal! That is an enormous accomplishment and a huge boost of confidence. The combination of the Swaby sisters in the center and Rebecca Spencer in goal proved to be one of the hardest defenses to break down at the tournament. The Reggae Girlz have their backline set!
Jamaica has incredible momentum coming off of this historic accomplishment - Bunny Shaw said it best in the postgame: "We came out and we held our own. We played hard, but it's football, you win some and you lose some. We just have to lift our heads high [and] be proud of ourselves, and as you can see the gap is closing between the small islands and the bigger countries. This just goes to show that women's football is growing and we have to keep moving forward and keep pushing it and, hopefully, we can get it as far as possible,"
Challenges:
The relationship with the Jamaica Football Federation (JFF) is not in a good place. Let’s not forget - this historic run to the knockout round was not fueled by a federation supporting and backing the team…in fact, it was quite the opposite. Check out our previous posts for some more background on that. After this great showing, you would expect for support to be there, but manager Lorne Donaldson is not necessarily optimistic: “In 2019, nothing happened, maybe with some help from the government, even though FIFA and the government don't really mix, we can all come together and try to figure something out, so we don’t do something hodgy-podgy all the time. The sun is going to come up tomorrow, so we have to be ready to go and just get on with our lives.”
Jamaica were only able to score one goal at this World Cup. This team needs to find different ways to score, especially in big games. Bunny Shaw is always going to command a lot of attention from opposing defenses and if she cannot get free and score, this team needs to have a gameplan to be dangerous in other ways in and around the box.
Canada
This team went into the World Cup under less than ideal conditions - turmoil in the form of a funding crisis at Canadian Soccer and a CBA still not negotiated for the team resulted in a lack of friendlies leading into the tournament. Despite that mess, there was a lot of confidence from players and pundits alike given the talent and experience on the team. Crashing out in the Group Stage went from unfathomable to possible after the first two games against Nigeria and Ireland. The cracks were forming and everything broke in their group finale in a 0-4 loss to a Kerr-less Australia. Just like that - Canada was out.
Positive?
I honestly couldn’t think of a positive coming out of this tournament for Canada. At a minimum I thought we would’ve been able to celebrate the legendary Christine Sinclair scoring in a record 6th World Cup, but she was denied that opportunity from the penalty spot. Perhaps this tournament was a wake up call that the players, manager Bev Priestman, and Canadian Soccer needed to right the ship?
Challenges:
There was no attacking identity for this team at the World Cup. Granted this was due, in part, to Jessie Fleming missing a game due to injury and not being at 100%. Putting that aside, it was disappointing to watch a team that is usually so clinical in the final third really struggle to create and finish. Their only 2 goals in the tournament came against Ireland and one of those was an own goal.
Canada cannot continue to rely on aging stars. Christine Sinclair (the all-time leading international goal scorer) is a legend of the game and can still produce goals for Canada….but she cannot carry the weight of the entire attack for this team at 40. Similarly, one of their best creators at the World Cup was Sophie Schmidt and after the tournament, she made the decision to retire from international soccer. That is a huge loss. The rest of this team needs to step up!
Playoff Preview
The squads have been announced for both of these teams and they are almost identical to what we saw at the World Cup. For Jamaica, it would make sense to keep the momentum going with the same group that took a nation where they had never gone before. Many of their players also signed new deals for teams in top leagues following the tournament! Lorne Donaldson will continue with the group that took the whole world by surprise just a few months ago.
For Canada, Bev Priestman knows that they need to do a better job of developing and giving experience to new players, but there are a few reasons she may have opted for the same lineup. First, the quick turnaround between the World Cup and these matches did not leave much room to experiment - she will want to rely on the veterans that have historically succeeded. Second, if the team thinks the World Cup was just an outlier and that the team who won Gold in Tokyo and challenged the USWNT at last year’s Concacaf W Championship is their true form, why change it up?
Keys to Victory
Jamaica:
In my opinion, the most important thing for Jamaica will be to win the first leg hosted in Kingston. Winning by multiple goals in leg one would be even better! If they are unable to go into the second leg in Toronto leading on aggregate, it will be an extremely difficult to advance.
In order to get that win, The Reggae Girlz need to score goals! As mentioned earlier, their one major negative from the World Cup was that they only scored one goal. While this is a team on the rise that is continuously improving, they have never beaten Canada in a competitive game and have been outscored 60-1! Goals, goals, and more goals are needed!
Canada:
The Canadians have the better team on paper, but they need to play like they are the defending gold medalists! They need to have a strong showing during the first leg on the road - if they can even come away with a draw in that one, they will be in the driver’s seat for Olympic qualification. If they can find their identity and regain their form, they should punch their ticket with relative ease.
This is Jessie Fleming’s team - when she plays well, they usually win and when she doesn’t play well, which is rare, they tend to struggle. She should be much healthier for these two games than she was at the World Cup and that is already a huge boost! I expect to see a big performance or two from her!
What’s at stake?
Jamaica
The Reggae Girlz have the opportunity in this playoff to continue making history. This would be their first Olympic appearance and they would be the first women’s team from outside of North America to represent Concacaf at the Olympics. This also presents another opportunity to compete with the best teams in the world. Unlike the men’s Olympic tournament (which is mostly U-23 players), the women’s tournament is probably the most prestigious event in the sport outside of the World Cup. The chance to continue the positive momentum on the world stage is massive for Jamaica!
Additionally, an appearance at the Olympics would further cement these athletes as national heroes and put further pressure on the federation to find ways to give this team the support they have earned and deserve. Manager Lorne Donaldson said earlier this week: “We just want to keep moving forward towards building a strong and sustainable women’s football programme. It makes no sense we talk about history if the necessary support isn’t behind it,” These women would also have the opportunity to go down in Jamaican Olympic lore with the likes of Usain Bolt, Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce, and Elaine Thompson.
Canada
As discussed ad nauseam, Canada have a gold medal to defend. In order to have that chance, they need to qualify for the tournament. They will be looking for their fourth consecutive medal and they have proven that they are one of the teams to beat at this event. Beyond the title defense, their standing as one of the top teams in the world is on the line. If a disastrous performance at the World Cup paired with a federation mess weren’t enough, not qualifying for the 2024 games in Paris would put this program in a fragile position and I would imagine a near full overhaul would be considered.
If they can qualify for these games and medal like we have become accustomed to seeing, this team can prove that the performance at the World Cup was just a small blemish on an otherwise dominant decade with another decade of opportunity on the horizon. This team is at an inflection point - they need to make a statement!
Format & Match Dates
Two-leg home-and-away format. The team that scores the most on aggregate will qualify. If the aggregate score is tied after the two legs, the away goal tiebreaker will be used. If away goals are equal, extra-time will be played with a penalty shootout in the event the teams are still tied.
Match 1: Friday, September 22 at 8pm ET - Kingston, Jamaica
Match 2: Tuesday, September 26 at 7pm ET - Toronto, Canada
I hope you enjoy these playoff games - I look forward to providing full coverage of the soccer tournaments that will take place at the 2024 Olympics in France next summer!