Gold Cup - SF Preview
And then there were four - what a weekend!
The final four are set and we only have three games left in the 2023 Gold Cup. Coming into the tournament, I saw these four as the strongest teams and they have all had a unique path to this point. The two games that take place on Wednesday night will be must-watch soccer! Before we dive into those matchups, let’s take a look at how each semifinalist got here!
Quarterfinal Review
Panama: 4-0 win vs Qatar
Watch Highlights Here
As expected, Panama were able to control the pace of the game throughout which resulted in an early headed goal from Edgar Barcenas in the 19th minute. Qatar had a chance towards the end of the first half that sailed just over the crossbar - and that was about as close as they would get. Panama opened the second half with a beautiful ball played through by Carrasquilla that was finished by Ismael Diaz. What we saw next from Ismael Diaz can only be described as dialed in. He went on to score a hat-trick…and he did it in 9 minutes!
Based on my research, this was the fastest hat-trick in Gold Cup history (and he had a chance to score 4 within that timeframe). Qatar’s backup keeper, Salah Zakaria, had a rough outing and he did not have much support. Qatar came into this game down several starters (and their manager) due to suspension and this Panamanian team took advantage and announced themselves as a true title contender!
Mexico: 2-0 win vs Costa Rica
Watch Highlights Here
Both of these managers came into this came facing a lot of pressure. Jaime Lozano facing questions after the Qatar loss and many wondering if this would be Luis Fernando Suarez’ final game in charge of Los Ticos. One of the recent reasons for optimism for El Tri was the more relaxed and free-flowing fútbol they have been playing under Lozano but the beginning of this game felt like something from the Tata Martino and Diego Cocca eras - you could see the early nerves and tension from this Mexican side.
After a back and forth affair, the sides went into the break deadlocked at 0-0. Early in the second half, Henry Martin won a penalty that was finished without a doubt by OrbelÃn Pineda (who celebrated by hitting his trademark backflip celebration). Despite a few chances down the stretch for Costa Rica, Mexico controlled the game and Érick Sánchez added a late goal to finish it off. For Costa Rica, Luis Fernando Suarez says he is not thinking about leaving but given this quarterfinal exit, plus his tensions with Keylor Navas, is there a path forward?
Jamaica: 1-0 win vs Guatemala
Watch Highlights Here
It’s the Reggae Boyz back into the Gold Cup semifinals for the 4th time in the last 5 tournaments - but it was a fight for the full 90 minutes. What a run for Guatemala and their fans - big wins, packed stadiums, and a knockout round appearance for the first time in over a decade. The game started with intensity with a few chances for both teams and hard tackles - the ref was letting them play in this one. As the game reached halftime, Jamaica knew they were in for a tough second half and would need to take it to another level.
Just after the break, it was recently recruited dual-nat Demarai Gary who drew the full attention of the defense and proceeded to play a pristine pass into Amari’i Bell who waited until the last second before beating Hagen at the near post. Los Chapines did not back down and it took a few great saves from Andre Blake to hold the lead and the game ended 1-0. Despite the win, Guatemala had the advantage on possession and shots on target - a great showing from them and something Jamaica will need to analyze ahead of their showdown with Mexico.
USA: 2-2 (3-2 PKs) win vs Canada
Watch Highlights Here
This game had all the pieces of what makes Concacaf (and soccer in general) great! A budding rivalry between neighboring nations, back-and-forth drama, extra time, and penalty kicks to decide who advanced. Granted, if you watched this game…the first 80 minutes or so did not provide much entertainment, but the wait was worth it for the Concacaf crescendo at the end. The game started with a lengthy stoppage after a ref took a ball to the face (thankfully he is OK) and I think this contributed to the slow start. Both teams were visibly frustrated by the lack of chances and things began to get chippy. Most of the second half wasn’t much different, until the hometown hero Brandon Vazquez entered with a quarter hour to go. In his FC Cincinnati career, he has scored over 30 goals (many in that very stadium) and the crowd was ready for another.
As the game was drawing to a close, DeJuan Jones played an incredible ball over the top and Vazquez hammered it home with a header - a poetic finish to this game! Except that Canada would win a penalty in added time that was struck right down the middle to tie the game by Steven Vitoria. In extra time, Nashville SC’s young midfielder Jacob Shaffelburg beat everyone down the side and buried a beautiful goal to give Canada the advantage. Just minutes later, chaos in the box paired with a shot from Busio led to a Canada own goal to send the game to penalties. Matt Turner was able to stop Victoria’s shot this time, but Vazquez followed that up by skying his PK over the top. Turner stepped up again, channeled his inner Dibu Martinez, and stopped the second Canadian attempt - and it was at this moment that I became convinced that Arsenal second choice keepers are the best PK stoppers on the planet. After 5 more converted shots, Canada were forced to score and unfortunately Brym’s attempt hit the bottom of the crossbar and bounced out. This was a game that was intense on the field and that intensity flowed off the field into the tunnel postgame.
Semifinal Preview
USA vs Panama (7/12 at 7:30pm) / San Diego, CA
The last time these two faced off, it was a 5-1 victory for the US in World Cup qualifying. It would be easy to assume the US would roll through this game, but let’s remember that this is a B roster for the Stars and Stripes and that Panama has historically played the US very close, including winning games on US soil (most recently the 2015 Gold Cup 3rd place game). This Panamanian side has been the most complete team I have seen so far in this competition. They are very well coached, defensively sound, dominant in the midfield, and as we saw against Qatar, they are lethal in open space.
Coming off of 120 minutes in a very physical game, one less day of rest, and a cross country trip, the USMNT is going to be exhausted physically and Panama will hope to take advantage of this. It will be interesting to see if BJ Callaghan opts for a more experienced lineup or if he sticks with some of the younger guys. If one team can dominate possession, they will likely win the game. Both of these nations have averaged the highest percentage of possession so far and I expect a tight game with the possibility of some free fútbol…but I give Panama the slight edge.
Prediction: Panama 2 - USA 1 (aet)
Mexico vs Jamaica (7/12 at 10pm) / Las Vegas, NV
It’s another Gold Cup knockout round matchup between El Tri and the Reggae Boyz - something that we are becoming accustomed to. Jamaica won the recent battle 1-0 in the 2017 semifinals (where they later lost to USA in the finals) and Mexico came out on top in the 2015 final with a decisive 3-1 result. This game has all the ingredients for classic Gold Cup drama! Jamaica have a new look attack anchored by recently arrived dual-nationals but they are lacking depth and are coming off a poor offensive showing. El Tri continue to get the job done (their 9th straight Gold Cup semifinal appearance) but many fans are concerned that they really haven’t dominated a game outside of the opener against Honduras.
Jaime Lozano and his squad will have the benefit of a very large Mexico-friendly crowd and I believe that it will impact the game - this will be a much tougher atmosphere for Jamaica compared to the US friendly crowd they faced in Chicago. Even if Edson Alvarez is able to go for El Tri, there are holes in this defense and Jamaica should get multiple good looks at goal. This could either be a defining moment to help begin the Jaime Lozano era…or it could be an early exit for the interim manager. I picked Jamaica over Mexico in the final as part of my initial preview…and I will stick with that pick here in the semis.
Prediction: Jamaica 2 - Mexico 1
Whether it’s live at the stadium, out with family & friends, or at home on the couch, do yourself a favor and find a way to watch these midweek semifinal matchups. You will witness both legends of Concacaf and up and coming stars, regional powerhouses versus nations that are on the rise, and interim managers with something to prove versus established managers looking for accolades. Gold Cup final berths are on the line - it will be an exciting night!