Gold Cup - QF Preview
Survive and advance...win or go home...it's time for knockout round fútbol!
What a phenomenal group stage we just witnessed - surprise teams, stoppage time equalizers, decision day drama, and goals galore! The margin for error is now gone in the knockout round, and each team will need to bring their best game in order to get their title run started on the right foot. We’ve got the familiar favorites, some rising Concacaf programs, and a few teams trying to turn things around. Let’s get into it!
Jamaica vs Guatemala
Sunday, July 9 at 5pm / Cincinnati, OH
The Reggae Boyz may have a potential meeting with Mexico in the semifinals (a team they have a very long Gold Cup history with) but they cannot afford to overlook this Guatemala team. Los Chapines shocked everyone by finishing at the top of Group D after a heroic come from behind victory against Guadeloupe on decision day. My stretch goal for them was to push a team to extra time in the quarterfinals and they will have the opportunity to do that on Sunday evening.
After just one goal in their first two games, the return of Rubio Rubin proved to be the spark they needed and he will need to step up big in order to lead Guatemala to an upset victory. In the end, I think the presence of Andre Blake in goal paired with the new look attack of Gray, Bailey, and Antonio will prove overpowering. I expect this game to be tight at half with Jamaica pulling away after the break
Prediction: Jamaica 3 - Guatemala 1
Mexico vs Costa Rica
Saturday, July 8 at 9:30pm / Arlington, TX
El Tri didn’t need to win their game against Qatar to top Group B…but it certainly changed the conversation. I have heard a mix of reactions from Mexican fans but one thing is for sure, Jaime Lozano may not be a lock to keep his job as some suggested after the first two games. Los Ticos barely survived their group but were able to amass 6 goals in their final game against Martinique wo had looked solid until that point. Despite that showing, I still don’t know what the identity of this Costa Rica team is.
I think Mexico will be looking to prove a point to themselves and to their fans (who are expected to pack into AT&T stadium) and to show that they are not going to give up their claim on the Kings of Concacaf without a fight. If Costa Rica can get an early goal, they will have a real chance to keep it interesting until the end, but if they get behind early it could be a long night for Luis Fernando Suarez. My question is - who is going to show up and score consistently for El Tri?
Prediction: Mexico 2 - Costa Rica 1
United States vs Canada
Sunday, July 9 at 7:30pm / Cincinnati, OH
When these teams face off on Sunday, it will only have been 3 weeks since they met in the Nations League Final where the US won 2-0. While very few of this US team were in Las Vegas for that game, many of these Canadian players were and they can still taste that loss. This game will be another chance for the Stars and Stripes to show Canada that their claim on Concacaf was short-lived and that they need to continue to play catch-up. For Canada, this would be a defining game for the program to start righting the ship ahead of a potential Copa America appearance next summer.
This game is taking place in Cincinnati, and while it’s not Columbus, Ohio has generally been a historic stronghold for the USMNT in all Concacaf competitions. Interim coach BJ Callaghan is coming into his own and starting to find his best XI, while John Herdman is feeling a bit more confident as they navigated Group D without a loss (although they barely advanced). Given that the US has not faced a challenge or much pressure since their opener against Jamaica, I think they could start slow. In saying that, I don’t see enough firepower on this Canadian side to take advantage.
Prediction: USA 2 - Canada 1
Panama vs Qatar
Saturday July 8 at 7pm / Arlington, TX
In the end, it doesn’t really matter how you get into the knockout round - everything resets and anything can happen. Most people, including myself, counted out this Qatar side from advancing but they were able to score early against Mexico and hold on for 60+ minutes to win on decision day. Panama on the other hand, punched their ticket to this round after matchday 2 after a dominant performance in Group C. This Panamanian side has something to prove after missing out on the 2022 World Cup (despite qualifying in 2018). A deeper run in this Gold Cup paired with their Nations League 4th place finish will do wonders for their program.
Qatar is no stranger to the knockout stages of the Gold Cup - they advanced to the semifinals in 2021 where they lost to the US 1-0 in a game many could argue they deserved to win. Having said that, I still don’t know what I am going to get from this team. They gave up stoppage time goals in 2 of their 3 group games and haven’t been clinical in the final third. Panama has one of, if not the most, dominant midfields I have seen in this tournament. I think they will control the possession and pace of this game and that should result in goals.
Prediction: Panama 2 - Qatar 0
It is going to be another great weekend of Gold Cup action! As a reminder, you can tune in via Fox, Univision, or TUDN and their streaming platforms for all the action OR just read my reviews to check out the highlights. These games will be a treat for any soccer fan!
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