Charlotte FC: March Review / April Preview
A look back at the first 6 games and what lies ahead
“Refreshing”, “exciting”, and “professional” are just a few words from many conversations I have had about Charlotte FC over the last month. After 2 years that could be described as a roller coaster, there seems to be newfound stability with the arrival of Dean Smith and there is a lot more optimism around the team - a welcomed change!
Welcome to the first edition of CarolinaCorner (a new section from ConcaCorner). As a resident of the Carolinas, I want to dive into all of the great soccer happening in this region. This will primarily focus on teams/stories in the Charlotte and Triad area. Even if you aren’t a fan of these clubs or live in the region, you may find it compelling.
For those who may not be interested in this specific section, follow these instructions on how to subscribe/unsubscribe from specific sections on Substack. I look forward to bringing everyone a profile on a rising star in the Concacaf region soon - stay tuned for that in the coming weeks!
Charlotte FC coverage will likely consist of a monthly review/preview article along with a handful of stories and interviews throughout the season. These posts will feature a summary of results, a look at the MLS table, my main takeaways from the month, and a look ahead to the coming month. Let’s get into it!
Monthly Summary (results, table, stats)
Results:
1-0 win vs. NYCFC, goal - Malanda
1-1 draw vs. Vancouver, goal - Tavares
0-1 loss vs. Toronto FC
1-2 loss vs. Nashville SC, goal - Dejaegere
2-0 win vs. Columbus, goals - Westwood, Agyemang
1-1 draw vs. FC Cincinnati, goal - Diani
Table:
Player Stats:
Goals: 6 players tied at 1 (Malanda, Westwood, Dejaegere, Tavares, Agyemang, and Diani)
Assists: 3 players tied at 1 (Uronen, Dejaegere, and Diani)
FotMob Rating: top 5 players - Diani (7.8), Westwood (7.3), Uronen (7.3), Malanda (7.1), and Privett (7.0)
Team Stats:
Expected goals (xG) = 9.1 (6th in MLS)
Goals per match = 1 (23rd in MLS)
Goals conceded per match = 0.8 (4th in MLS)
Average possession = 43.5% (27th in MLS)
Takeaways
Dean Smith has made the difference
There is one thing that fans, players, media, and staff are all agreeing on (a very rare occurrence in sports)…Dean Smith’s presence has changed the game for Charlotte FC. While many teams have newfound excitement with a manager change, this has been different. In just a few short months, evidence of a huge shift is everywhere. The players seem confident, the on-field product is already better, press conferences are more free-flowing and less tense, and Dean is engaging the whole organization from top to bottom.
One of the more obvious on-field improvements to point to is the defense. Charlotte FC had one of the worst defenses in MLS their first two seasons (52 goals conceded, 1.5 per game). The personnel hasn’t changed much since last season and through 6 games, Charlotte FC has only conceded 5 goals (top 5 in MLS). Even with the small sample size, the new system seems to be working and the players look more confident.
Lastly, it is nice to hear from a manager who isn’t passive-aggressive in press conferences. A manager that answers questions directly…or at least as direct as possible. Even after losses, he accepts tough questions and gives honest answers. He has a great balance of defending his players, while also keeping them accountable. He shares what the team is doing well and what they need to improve on. Anyone around the club before this can attest to the welcome change!
The Crown survived a gauntlet to begin the season
When the 2024 MLS schedule was released, I looked at Charlotte’s draw and thought “They may not win a game until April.” That thought was not a knock on the progress I saw in the preseason…just the reality of a VERY tough schedule.
Charlotte FC has not been great in home openers, so the NYCFC win was not guaranteed. Then they had to travel across the continent to face Vancouver (currently 2nd in the West), and continue on the road to face a star-studded Toronto team and a very good Nashville SC side. Their gift of home games after a long road trip were the 2023 MLS Cup Champions (Columbus Crew) and the 2023 Supporters Shield winners (FC Cincinnati).
To end this brutal run of games sitting in a playoff position with 8 points is a success for the club. Outside of the Nashville SC game, Charlotte has not looked overmatched. In fact, they have been able to control a lot of the games and any dropped points have come from wonder goals or a few defensive lapses.
The ending to the Cincinnati game, while triggering, should not be cause for alarm
I know, I know…it was a scene that Charlotte supporters are all too familiar with. The team has a lead, or is level, with less than 10 minutes to play and the opposition scores a late goal. In the moment, I was taken back to the countless points (a league leading 25 to be precise) that the team dropped from winning positions last year. A few hours later, I was able to put it all into perspective.
Last year, the team was shaky in the back from the opening whistle. That has not been the case this year (as referenced earlier). It would get especially dicey around the 80th minute when players would be out of position regularly. I also didn’t see that against Cincinnati late. Yes, the communication could have been better but we simply got beat on a counter-attack by a good team.
Lastly, this is soccer…teams get scored on. Do you know who was second in dropped points from winning positions last season? The MLS Cup Champion Columbus Crew. Now, they can’t make a habit of this again…but I don’t see anything that leads me to believe the 2023 woes (-7 goal differential after 84th minute) will be replicated this year. Here is a clip of the MLS Wrap-Up crew debating whether Charlotte FC should feel like the Cincy game was progress or a continuation of late game lapses.
The attack needs to start putting away chances
While I am an analytical person, I also know so much of the beautiful game cannot be explained by data and statistics - it’s one of the reasons I love it…it helps me break out of my shell a bit…but the stats do paint a clear picture here. Charlotte is almost at the top of the league in expected goals (xG), but they are are towards the bottom of the league in goals per match. Simply put, they aren’t converting good chances.
This has been the one area that has been the most disappointing this season. Enzo Copetti has failed to capitalize on a number of good opportunities, Kerwin Vargas (who was so clinical at the end of last year) has not looked like himself, chances on open nets have been squandered, and we have only converted 1 of 3 penalties. It’s a new season and a new system, so rust is to be expected. At the same time, if Charlotte FC wants to take a leap this year, the final product needs to improve in attack. I think the new DP, Liel Abada, will help a ton once he settles in with the team.
After the Cincinnati game, Dean Smith explained, “I would be sat here a lot more worried if we weren’t getting them chances. When teams aren’t getting chances, then you know you’ve got problems.” This has been his consistent message so far. I tend to agree with this and am OK with the response because behind closed doors I am sure he is working with the attack and pressing them to be more ruthless in and around the box. He also said he think the team is operating at a 6/10 right now…he sees the potential!
The team is still a few pieces away
Both Zoran and Dean have hinted at a few more players being added before the MLS window closes (April 23) and in the summer window. Charlotte FC still has an open DP slot and a U22 initiative slot. While some comments have been made about the profiles they’re looking for, I think a few ideas need to be considered.
More attacking creativity in the midfield - I think this should come in the form of a true 10/CAM. This season we have seen multiple players fill this position (Brecht, Arfield, Westwood late in games, and Petkovic against Cincy). Based on what I saw in 2023, and so far this year, I am not sure any of these options truly fit the need. Some say Ben Bender can play the 10 when he returns, but I think something bigger is needed to unlock the attack.
Many successful teams in the MLS are driven by creative attacking midfielders: Almada, Mukhtar Acosta, Rossi, etc. This team is missing somebody that creates chances for themselves AND for everyone else on the pitch. I would like to see the team use their final DP slot of this profile. Based on some of their initial targets in the winter window, this seems like the direction they will go.
Other needs that have been floated: Another left-footed defender (although João Pedro has looked phenomenal), winger depth (even with Abada, there may be a need for more depth), and a striker to throw into the mix. Having both Copetti and Agyemang as options has been great…but you can never have too many 9s!
April Preview
After two good results to end a tough stretch of games, Charlotte FC should be coming into April with a lot of confidence. The team is getting healthy at the right time and the upcoming fixtures are generally favorable:
New England (away) 4/6 - this game is sandwiched between the Revolution’s two Concacaf Champions Cup games against the legendary Club América. Just a few days after this game, they will have to prepare to play at Estadio Azteca. If the Revs keep the first game competitive, they will likely rest many starters for their game against Charlotte. Even so, they cannot overlook New England - although they are bottom of the league right now, they have a lot of individual talent and the CCC has made it difficult for a regular lineup to find a rhythm in MLS.
Toronto FC (home) 4/13 - The Crown will be looking to reverse their result in Toronto a few weeks ago with a win at home. Charlotte played well for the majority of the first contest, but a moment of brilliance from Lorenzo Insigne was the difference. It’s hard to tell what Toronto will bring week-to-week, and Charlotte has always found it difficult to beat them. Being at home will be the boost they need!
Minnesota United (home) 4/21 - The Loons have been a surprise for the league so far (4th in the West). They went through the whole off-season and started the season with an interim manager and new manager Eric Ramsay has only had a few weeks with the squad. If they’re all healthy, Minnesota has one of the most dangerous attacks in the league: Pukki, Hlongwane, and Reynoso. Charlotte will need to lean on the home crowd and get an early goal to grab all 3 points.
NYCFC (away) 4/27 - This may seem like a biased and lazy analysis…but Charlotte FC has never lost to NYCFC (4 wins, 1 draw). Pair that with the fact that this NYCFC team is probably the most inconsistent in the league and the manager is already on the hot seat, I think The Crown would need to play their worst game of the year to walk out of the Big Apple with less than a point.
This time next month, we should have clarity on a lot of things: new signings before the summer, how the Abada addition impacts the attack, if the strong defensive start continues, and whether Enzo can start to build momentum. I think the opportunity is there for Charlotte to move up the table and I am excited for all the action!
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