Biggest Win in a Decade!
Takeaways from Honduras' recent victory over Mexico
My wife and I recently celebrated our 6th wedding anniversary! It’s hard to put into words how thankful I am for her and our relationship…I am truly a blessed man. I am also a very analytical person, so I started thinking about some of the events that have or haven’t happened over the last 6 years. While it may seem ridiculous (what else do you expect from a Concacaf sicko?), my mind got stuck on something. Just a few days before our anniversary, Honduras also reached a 6-year milestone (although not so celebratory)...the last time they beat Mexico.
When it comes to watching futbol with my wife, we have had a familiar routine when Honduras faces off against El Tri. We put on our kits, sing our songs, and prepare for disappointment (including this year’s Gold Cup in which they lost 4-0 after giving up a goal seconds into the match). I tend to be very hopeful when it comes to La H, but I was beginning to believe that beating Mexico would never happen again. I also began to doubt Honduras’ ability to continue competing at a high level in Concacaf…I was reaching a new low. That all changed on Friday night (highlights here)!
Going into Friday’s Nations League quarterfinal first-leg, Honduras had not been victorious against Mexico since October 10, 2017 (one of the darkest days in US soccer history if you recall). As my wife and I were preparing for our wedding, 2018 World Cup Qualifying was wrapping up. Honduras needed a win against their bitter rivals to keep their World Cup hopes alive.
They needed some moments of magic (including a tying goal that hit the crossbar and then bounced off Memo Ochoa’s face into the back of the net). Just minutes later, Romell Quioto scored the winner (highlights below). That win eliminated the US from the 2018 World Cup and sealed Honduras’ spot in the inter-confederation playoff. It was a very conflicting day for me…but one thing was certain, I did not know it would be another 2,230 days before Los Catrachos would beat El Tri.
As a passionate fan of Honduras, it would be easy for me to rattle off a list of overreactions to this recent win over Mexico fueled by emotion and bias…but I am going to do my best to refrain from that and remain objective. If you think these takeaways are overblown, let me know in the comments!
1. This is Honduras’ biggest win in the last 10 years
At first glance, the above statement seems ridiculous. This was a Nations League quarterfinal game after all, but if you look at the last decade, I cannot find a bigger win. I am starting the decade after Honduras beat Mexico in the Azteca during World Cup Qualifying in September 2013. This was one of the greatest moments for Honduras (highlights here) and they will have the opportunity to recreate that magic in the Azteca on Tuesday night! Since then, there have been only two wins that can compete with a few nights ago.
The 3-2 victory over Mexico referenced above in 2018 WCQ that sealed their spot in the playoff game (that they later lost).
Their victory over Costa Rica on penalties in the 2021 Concacaf Nations League 3rd place game.
I don’t think either of those wins is bigger than the win from last night and I don’t think it’s just recency bias. Let me explain:
Honduras dominated Mexico from start to finish. I have not seen Honduras play like this against a “stronger” opponent in the last decade. While Mexico won possession, they were never dangerous and Honduras controlled the tempo and had the best chances. In the other games mentioned above, Honduras was not dominant and needed special moments to get the victories. This game also meant something for Mexico…in the 2017 game, Mexico’s spot atop WCQ was already booked.
While El Tri has not been at their best in the last few years, they were coming off the momentum of a Gold Cup title and two of their best performances under Jimmy Lozano against Ghana and Germany. Nobody was giving Honduras a shot in this game. Not oddsmakers, not pundits (including my favorites on Futbol Americas), and to be honest, I wasn’t giving them a shot either.
There was a lot of talk about this game taking place at the recently renovated Estadio Nacional Chelato Uclés in Tegucigalpa rather than Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano in San Pedro Sula. Historically, Honduras has had success against teams like Mexico and the USMNT in San Pedro Sula for a few reasons: the poor pitch conditions, the heat and humidity, and the proximity of the fans to the pitch. Some say San Pedro would “level the playing field” versus better teams. Rather than going back to that well, La H elected to play on a very good pitch in much cooler weather. They had no outside advantage, yet they took it to Mexico and ran them off the field.
2. This victory can change the course of Honduran soccer
Again…I know how this sounds but I believe it is true. It isn’t just this one game alone, a lot of work is going on behind the scenes to right the ship, but last night proved the process to this team and to the fans. After Honduras’ failure to qualify for the 2018 World Cup, things have been deteriorating for the team. They were eliminated in the group stage at the 2019 Gold Cup and then the break during the pandemic came. Post-pandemic, they had that bright spot of a 3rd place finish at the Nations League, but it has been all downhill since then (including one of the worst WCQ showings where they had 4 draws and 10 losses). None of that mentions some of the turmoil behind the scenes with the federation, player disputes, and 6 managers in 6 years.
This victory does a few things for the program:
Gabriel Palacio from Clavado en un Var said it best after the game last night, “This game is proof that we can compete...regardless of the size of the team or their importance in the futbol world, we can do things, we can play good futbol.” I couldn’t agree more. This is proof that the plan is working. It will instill confidence in this program and in the players that they don’t have to shrink or cower against teams deemed better or bigger than them. La H played fearless in that game and they need to continue to do so!
This win puts Honduras one step closer to 2024 Copa America qualification. If they can build on this momentum and get a good result at the Azteca, they will automatically qualify for Copa America AND get into the Nations League semifinals. If they end up losing on aggregate, they will still go into the playoff with confidence and just need one win to advance. If Los Catrachos can take part in Copa America again, it will be an invaluable experience. Honduras hasn’t had the opportunity to play on a stage like that since the 2014 World Cup. Regardless of the outcome, it will give this generation of players the experience on a world stage against some of the world’s best. Who knows….maybe they could repeat some of the magic they had at the 2001 Copa America!
2026 World Cup Qualifying is on the horizon and it is going to be a golden opportunity for many Concacaf teams. The hosts (USA, Mexico, and Canada) automatically qualify and Concacaf will have 3 more guaranteed spots (and 2 inter-confederation playoff spots). This victory over Mexico should give Honduras the confidence that they will compete for one of those 3 guaranteed spots. They will have to battle with the likes of Panama, Jamaica, Costa Rica, and their other Central American rivals for those places. Prior to this game, I thought Honduras would at least be able to make it into the inter-confederation playoff…but after Friday’s win, they should be considered favorites to lock up an automatic spot.
3. Bringing back Reinaldo Rueda was the right move
There were a lot of thoughts about bringing back Rueda (who managed the team from 2007-2010). He led the team to the 2010 World Cup after 28 years of missing out on World Cups. Despite that accomplishment, he stepped down after a poor showing at the World Cup in which Honduras exited in the group stage without a win or a goal. Since that time, Rueda has had stints with the national teams of Ecuador, Chile, and Colombia and South American club giants Atlético Nacional and Flamengo. Outside of success with Atlético Nacional, most of those stops ended in disappointment (especially Colombia missing out on the 2022 World Cup).
Given those results and the fact that most reunions for managers tend to end poorly, there were mixed feelings about his hiring a few months ago. The beginning of his second stint for La H was a bit shaky…a loss to Jamaica, an expected win over Grenada, and then a draw against Cuba in which they got off 25 shots and failed to score. It put them in a position needing a win against Cuba to advance to the Nations League quarterfinal, which they did convincingly 4-0. Despite that win, we wanted to see this team execute against a tougher opponent and the win against Mexico was a masterclass. His tactical prowess was on display!
Players from Rueda’s 2010 World Cup team talked about the organization and system he set up for Honduras and how that was massively important for their success. This was on display against Mexico. For the first time in years, there was a discernable gameplan and discipline with this team and the players are buying in. In recent years, Honduras has had great individual players but the national team managers have not been able to take advantage of all the talent at their disposal. Rueda did this over a decade ago and he is doing it now. He took a risk by removing star striker Romell Quioto from the team during this window after he did not arrive at camp on time. The risk paid off in this game as forwards Choco Lozano and Bryan Róchez each scored. Whether you agree or not, Rueda is setting a standard for this team and no player is above the expectation.
4. Luis Palma is a superstar
Luis “El Bicho” Palma has been a star in the making for several years. He represented La H in both the U-17 and U-20 World Cups along with the Summer Olympics. He turned those appearances with the youth national team and a few great seasons with Vida in Honduras into a move to Europe with Greek club Aris. In his first full season with Aris, Palma scored 13 goals across all competitions and was attracting interest from the likes of Manchester United, Anderlecht, and Rangers. Ultimately, Celtic were able to sign him earlier this year and he has been nothing short of spectacular for them (including this stunner against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League).
Despite his meteoric rise on the club side, Palma hadn’t had a signature moment with the senior national team until this game against Mexico. Going into the game he had just 11 caps and 1 goal (a few months ago against Grenada). Throughout the game, Palma was having his way. He was direct and unafraid to take on the Mexican defense. Despite some poor free kicks, he continued to take them confidently. He nearly scored a worldie from the end-line. He absolutely cooked Jorge Sanchez. But his signature moment broke the game open for Honduras as he placed the ball on a platter for Lozano to score the opener (see below). El Bicho has arrived and the sky is the limit!
5. Consistency will be crucial
Before you all think I am living in a dream world and that I am overreacting to this win, let me make one thing clear. Honduras will need to capitalize on this and create a level of consistency in order to take more steps forward. Fans of Los Catrachos are excited and they have every right to be, but this needs to be the beginning of something new and not a mountaintop moment. Regardless of the outcome at the Azteca on Tuesday, Honduras needs to think long-term and continue rebuilding this team and this program poco a poco. In the postgame, Reinaldo Rueda said, “It is a great result, but we must not lose our focus.” If they can continue to focus and play beautiful futbol like they did last night (see the below video as an example) they will re-establish themselves as one of the best in Concacaf!